How to read drug shortage reports (and their estimated end dates)
Every shortage report in Canada is filed by the manufacturer, under a legal obligation, into Health Canada's public database. Reading them well means knowing what each field actually promises, and what it does not.
The statuses
Anticipated shortage means the company expects supply to fall short of demand soon. Many anticipated shortages are averted entirely. Actual shortage means it is happening now. Resolved means the company says supply is back to normal. Avoided means an anticipated shortage never materialized. Discontinued is permanent: the company is exiting the product.
One critical detail: these statuses apply to a single product from a single company, one DIN (Drug Identification Number). A drug like amoxicillin has dozens of DINs across manufacturers. One "actual shortage" report tells you almost nothing until you know how many of the other manufacturers are also affected. That per-drug rollup is what rxstat computes: partial means some suppliers are affected and substitution is likely possible, widespread means half or more (or a Tier 3 designation) and options are thinning.
Tier 3: the ones that matter most
Health Canada assigns Tier 3 to shortages with the greatest potential impact: drugs with few or no alternatives, serious conditions, or system-wide implications. Tier 3 shortages get coordinated national attention, and they are the ones most likely to make the news. rxstat flags them on every affected drug page.
Why estimated end dates slip
The "estimated end date" is the manufacturer's own projection, not a commitment, and not Health Canada's assessment. Companies estimate optimistically: a plant restart that slips a month, an ingredient shipment that clears customs late, and the date moves. Slipping estimates are so common that rxstat tracks them as first-class events; a drug page that says "the estimate has been pushed back twice" is telling you to plan for the pessimistic case. Some reports honestly say the end date is unknown, which is often more useful information than a date that will move.
Where the data comes from
rxstat syncs the full report database through the day and records every change; the methodology page explains the aggregation rules. When something looks wrong, the linked official report on each page is the primary source.
Written and maintained by rxstat. Sourced from Health Canada's mandatory shortage reporting; not medical advice. Disclaimer.